The Golden Globes nominations were announced the other day and I am here to give you my predictions. In what has been a pretty great year as far as the quality of movies go, there isn’t one movie that is really standing out with buzz. Last year at this time we had Argo garnering quite a bit of hype as we approached the beginnings of the awards, whereas Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Mis lost a considerable amount over the next month or so. This year is going to be a tough race, as you will soon see.
Note: Again I will be using italicization for what I think will win, and bold for what I want to win.
Second Note: I will be updating my predictions as we approach the actual awards shows and after I get a chance to see some of these movies.
12 Years a Slave
Reason: As far as these movies go, 12 Years a Slave has garnered the most buzz and critical acclaim out of all of them. Captain Phillips was a fine movie, but it was nothing really extraordinarily done. Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi’s performances made the movie shine, but it felt all too familiar, and just a tad too long. Gravity is something of an anomaly. Sci-fi’s seldom get this much attention. The only exceptions in recent years that I can truly think of off the top of my head are Avatar and District 9. The thing was that Avatar won the Golden Globe, while its competition, Hurt Locker, won the Oscar. Thanks to its box-office success and achievement in film-making, I wouldn’t necessarily count it out, but due to trends it could possibly win the Golden Globe but not best picture. Rush and Philomena both have little to no buzz, so they are very very long shots.
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Reason: This is a tough one to call, because to be honest, I have yet to see any of them. Going off of the National Board of Review giving Her best picture of the year, it seems that it stands a fair chance. Also, its message about technology and our growing attachment to it is relevant today. American Hustle, from David O. Russell, who gained a lot of positive buzz last year for Silver Linings Playbook, could also win, based on its nominations in other award shows. Inside Llweyn Davis and The Wolf of Wall Street are from two, or rather, three directors who have already had success at the Oscars. Both are getting solid reviews, but they do not release until later this month. Nebraska is also from a director who has had success at the Oscars, Alexander Payne was nominated two years ago for the Descendants, a movie I didn’t really like, but it is getting a lot of buzz along the independent circuits.
Best Performance by a Male Actor-Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Idris Elba-Long Walk to Freedom
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Reason: Like I have said before, Chiwetel gave such a great performance in 12 Years a Slave, and considering that I think it will win best Drama, I think he too will win. Idris Elba has been getting good reviews on his performance as the now late Nelson Mandela, but the movie itself isn’t getting a lot of positivity. Tom Hanks, who was last nominated in 2008 and before that in 2001, probably won’t win based on his wins already. The same can be said for Robert Redford, but there is a slight chance that the Golden Globes could give him the award as what I like to call a, “you’re good” award; meaning his time in front of the camera is slowly fading away, and he deserves, rightly so, to be honored one more time, but if he wins the chances of him winning again are very slim. But it doesn’t help that Redford is not a fan of the big award shows, after all he did created the Sundance Film Festival. The last one is Matthew McConaughey, and he does stand a fair chance, but his, and Jared Leto’s performances are the only thing that really made Dallas Buyers Club stand out. My money is on Chiwetel.
Best Performance by a Female Actor-Drama
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Kate Winslet-Labor Day
Reason: This one is going to be between just two people. As of yet, the last three in that list, have not gotten any buzz; I honestly have not seen a trailer or heard anything about Labor Day. Philomena doesn’t have the buzz, while Saving Mr. Banks is growing in hype. Gravity on the other hand, is like I said, an anomaly. It’ll be very surprising if an actress from a sci-fi wins, but it does stand a fair chance. Cate Blanchett though, will most likely win. Her performance is, dare I say, career defining. It is an extraordinary performance by an actress who goes all out.
Best Performance by a Male Actor-Comedy
Christian Bale-American Hustle
Leonardo DeCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac-Inside Llweyn Davis
Reason: I think, based on what I have heard and the little I have seen from trailers and various interviews, Bruce Dern is poised to win it. Out of all of these, he is the one I know for sure will be up for an Oscar as well. As for Christian Bale, he won three years back in the Fighter, and is now being directed by the same director that led him to that win. I have not heard anything about his performance in it though, it certainly won’t be a great as his portrayal in the Fighter. I do however really want Joaquin Phoenix to win. Just from the trailers his performance seems beautiful, a new level for him, and I think it will help continue to reestablish his credit as an actor. Leo and Oscar, as much as I like their work, are up against some pretty stiff competition, so we will see how their movies fair as far as critics and box-office go.
Best Performance by a Female Actor-Comedy
Amy Adams-American Hustle
Julie Delpy-Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig-Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Enough Said
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
Reason: Frances Ha came out such a long time ago, that any sort of buzz is all gone. This goes for Before Midnight too. Any movie that comes out far before award season, doesn’t usually stand a chance. Julia Louis-Dreyfus also won’t stand a chance against Amy Adams and Meryl Streep. That being said, I think that Meryl Streep is not going to win. Her film has had such little buzz and even less marketing, that Amy Adams will probably take the gold for herself.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Reason: I think that new-comer Abdi, in his first role, did a fine job, but nothing really award worthy compared to Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender. The only reason I think that Jared Leto will win over Fassbender is the amount of work and effort he put into his heartbreaking role. He is unrecognizable in his role, and becomes even less so as the movie goes on. Bruhl has not had any buzz, and neither has Copper, so count them out.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins-Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o-12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
Reason: You can scratch off Julia Roberts and June Squibb. I don’t think they really have a chance. There names aren’t being thrown around. Sally Hawkins can too probably be scratched off, as great as her performance was, Jennifer Lawrence, coming off of numerous wins last year, and Lupita Nyong’o, in her great performance, our my two frontrunners. It will probably go to Lupita because of her powerful portrayal of a slave-girl.
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
Paul Greengrass-Captain Phillips
David O. Russell-American Hustle
Reason: Payne, Russell, and Greengrass are out of the picture for me. That leaves us two. Cuaron could take director, a sort of congratulations for the amazing work he did on Gravity, leaving the door open for 12 Years a Slave to take best picture. I do not see Gravity winning both, but it deserves to win something. McQueen could too win. He is becoming a formidable force, dealing with somewhat taboo issues. The other three, if the buzz were better, could stand a chance, but unfortunately I do not think they will have any sort of chance at winning.
12 Years a Slave
Reason: I think based on sheer originality, Her will win. When we get to the actual Oscars where we have Original and Adapted, I see 12 Years a Slave taking adapted and Her taking original. As of now, I think Her will probably take the Globe for it.
Best Score and Song:
I am not the best at critiquing music, so I can’t really give a good prediction of what will win each of these. Sorry, you’ll have to check elsewhere if you really care about the music.
Despicable Me 2
Reason: I have only seen Despicable Me out of these three, and The Croods did not receive the best of reviews when it came out. Yet, Frozen is probably going to take it. It is Disney after all. Also there is surprisingly no Pixar this year. Monsters University did not get any love.
Best Foreign Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Wind Rises
Reason: Blue is the Warmest Color has received immense amounts of praise and buzz. I am very anxious to see it. It deals with a lesbian romance and features a 15 minute sex scene, and it is also 3 hours long and NC-17, but despite these, I think it still will win based on its supposed beauty and excellence.
So there you have it. As the shows come closer, I will have a better idea of what will win. If you have any qualms or arguments you would like to address me with, do so in the comments.
- 12 Years a Slave Review (ragingfilm.wordpress.com)
- Dallas Buyers Club-Review (ragingfilm.wordpress.com)
- Golden Globe Nominations Predictions #1 (feelthefilms.wordpress.com)
- A Quick look at the Movies this Holiday Season – Theatre Worthy, Rent It, Wait for Cable or Skip it altogether, watch the previews and decide for yourself (whatareweseeing.wordpress.com)
- 2014 Golden Globe Nominations Announced (slashfilm.com)
- ’12 Years,’ ‘Hustle’ lead Golden Globes (toledoblade.com)
- ’12 Years a Slave,’ ‘American Hustle’ lead Globes nominations (arkansasonline.com)