Well, I guess it is about time to get down to the nitty-gritty considering that the Oscars are on in less than 2 days. Here I am going to give my final predictions, based on opinion, previous awards shows, and what the Academy is known to go for. I will say this first: this Award Season has been an excellent one. The nice thing is that there is no one film that is sweeping. We’ve had some excellent sci-fi, great period pieces, returns of great directors, and just great movies in general. So without further ado, my Oscar predictions:
Note: I had been doing my “want to win” and “think to win” separation, but this time I am just going to fill it out like how I will my ballot on Sunday.
Dallas Buyers Club
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Reason: Without a doubt, 12 Years a Slave is the front runner. It has the subject material, it has great acting, and it is just greatly executed. I don’t think that the Academy is ready to give a sci-fi the Best Picture Oscar, so unfortunately Gravity will not win. Dallas Buyers Club, American Hustle, and Wolf of Wall Street all have great and excellent performances, but their competition truly lies in those categories, they have a very slim chance at coming out on top. Her, despite its resonance with today’s society, will not win. Philomena, in my opinion, should not even be up there. The same goes for Captain Phillips. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a great movie, but there was nothing truly great about the movie aside from Hank’s and Abdi’s performances.
Christian Bale- American Hustle
Bruce Dern- Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey- Dallas Buyers Club
Reason: Before the Golden Globes, everyone that that the shoe-in would be Chiwetel for his performance in 12 Years a Slave, but McConaughey took the gold and is now in prime position to win some more. I don’t think that he deserves to win, but I do think he will. This means that DiCaprio will have to go yet another year without a win, and Bruce Dern will not get the gold even though he deserves to win once this late in his career. Bale, on the other hand, is probably the weakest in this bunch, and therefore does not stand a chance at winning.
Amy Adams- American Hustle
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock- Gravity
Judi Dench- Philomena
Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
Reason: Cate Blanchett has this one in the bag; there is no doubt about it. Even though Amy Adams won at the Golden Globes for Comedy, Blanchett’s performance in Blue Jasmine is among the best of her career, if not the greatest. Streep has won far too many for her to be a contender, add on to that the fact that August: Osage County isn’t really up for anything else other than Julia Roberts, and the chances of her winning are the slimmest they’ve been in years. Bullock did have some buzz around her, but it is highly unlikely she’ll win. Dench, as good as she is, also doesn’t stand a chance.
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi- Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper- American Hustle
Jonah Hill- The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto- Dallas Buyers Club
Reason: Jared Leto really owns his role as a transvestite with AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club, it is his rightful time to be finally winning the gold, after a truly great career. Barkhad Abdi could have a promising career if he chooses the right roles, but even though his performance was breathtaking, it was not the right time. Bradley Cooper will still continue to let the gold slip away, but he is still giving a great performance one after the other, and he will most certainly win eventually. Jonah Hill is kind of the odd one out. Rising from raunchy comedies to two Oscar nominations for some excellent performances, Jonah is proving to be more than just a funny face, but sadly he will not win either. Michael Fassbender though is still a name to be looking out for. He is an extremely underrated actor who is completely consistent in his roles, but even though I loved his performance as the evil slave owner, he won’t win.
Best Supporting Actress-
Sally Hawkins- Blue Jasmine
Julia Roberts- August: Osage County
Lupita Nyong’o- 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence- American Hustle
June Squibb- Nebraska
Reason: The only real competition in this category is Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence. Now, had Lawrence not won last year for Silver Linings Playbook, I would have picked her as the winner, but seeing as she did, I think that the Academy is going to go for Nyong’o. Lawrence, however, did win over Nyong’o at the Golden Globes, but I think that the Academy is going to go for a more serious performance and try to spread the gold around. They know that Lawrence is a powerhouse when it comes to acting, so they are anticipating more great performances from here.
Alfonso Cuaron- Gravity
Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell- American Hustle
Martin Scorsese- The Wolf of Wall Street
Alexander Payne- Nebraska
Reason: Gravity has a slim chance of winning, but it doesn’t really need to anymore. It proved to the world that there are still innovations to be made in the realm of special effects. It was a love letter to 2001: A Space Odyssey, and its director deserves recognition. Cuaron went all out on this movie, he spent years getting it to the screen, and it all paid off. McQueen is proving himself to be a consistently complex director who is not afraid to explore themes that most directors would not touch. Russell is also continuing to be a progressively greater filmmaker, having been nominated last year as well for Silver Linings Playbook. Scorsese needs no explanation. He is the master filmmaker of this group and he has earned his recognition ten-fold, but he won’t win this time around.
Best Original Screenplay:
Dallas Buyers Club
Reason: Her elevated sci-fi to a new level. It didn’t do it with special effects either. Spike Jonze created a world that is too possible, it is where we are going, and he deserves to be honored for this accomplishment. On top of that he made us fall in love with a computer, well, Scarlett Johansson also played a part in that, but it was Jonze’s words that worked their way into our hearts. I will be entirely surprised if Her does not win the award for writing, it would be like Inception losing all over again.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Reason: I think that since 12 Years a Slave is probably going to win Best Picture, then it should take screenplay too because it won’t be taking actor, director, or any of the other major categories. It is a tale that is heartbreaking and true. The only other movie that I think would deserve this award would be The Wolf of Wall Street, because well, it was a truly entertaining movie. Coming in at just shy of 3 hours, it never really stops at being funny. The writing is top notch with some truly great moments woven into it, but it won’t win.
Best Animated Film:
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
The Wind Rises
Reason: I have only seen Despicable Me 2 off of this list, but considering the rage that Frozen is causing among well, everyone who sees it, it’s probably going to win. Although, I do want to see The Wind Rises because it is the final film of Miyazaki, who is one of the greatest animated filmmakers of all time and it would be pretty sweet if the Academy gave him this one final award for all he did for animation.
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Missing Picture
The Great Beauty
Reason: Based purely off of previous wins and buzz, The Great Beauty is going to take the gold. It is a little surprising that Blue is the Warmest Color wasn’t nominated, but considering the NC-17 rating, it is kind of understandable.
And that’s it for the major categories. I predict that Gravity will sweep all of the technical categories, such as Cinematography and Sound Editing and all that jazz, because well, it deserves it. As for soundtracks and music, I would like to refer to my earlier statement in the Golden Globes predictions: “I am not the best at critiquing music, so I can’t really give a good prediction of what will win each of these. Sorry, you’ll have to check elsewhere if you really care about the music.”
The Awards are on Sunday on ABC, starting at 4 Pacific Time. So, tune in and see which of my predictions are true and which ones I totally missed.
For any disagreements, please do comment.